Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1157 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri May 10 2024 - 12Z Sat May 11 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

Only subtle changes were made to the Marginal Risk outlook area
from yesterday's Day 3 ERO. The advancing frontal boundary across
the Southeast U.S. will be the primary focus for deep convection
Friday into Friday afternoon and will be capable of producing rain
rates in excess of 1-1.5"/hr at times. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period, lingering
from the deep, organized convective line from the previous day.
This activity will be in the presence of a sufficiently high
moisture pool, characterized by dewpoints well into the 60s and low
70s and a PW axis of 1.5-1.75". A subtle shortwave trough noted in
the flow will be the main large scale forcing mechanism to drive
the convection that looks to track through southeast Alabama,
southern Georgia, northern Florida and then eventually off the
Southeast coast. Some localized heavier rain totals and rain rates
will be possible that could pose an isolated flash flood risk.

Hurley/Taylor