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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: STO
Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 191030
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures near to slightly above normal through the upcoming
week with a daily threat of afternoon to evening mountain
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Upper troughing digs over Interior NorCal today resulting in
minor height/thickness falls over the forecast area. This will
translate to a few degrees of cooling for most locations. Flow
through the Delta has been strong overnight, but will weaken some
during the day. However, marine layer is deepening in response to
the trough and combined with onshore flow will provide minor
cooling to areas in vicinity of the Delta. High temps this
afternoon expected to be around 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
Instability and moisture convergence over the higher elevations of
the Sierra Nevada and mountains of Western Plumas could result in
afternoon thunderstorms again.

Digging upper trough helps to deepen upper low off the SoCal coast
Sunday into Monday. Low progged to remain quasistationary through
Tuesday and will draw moisture into the area leading to a
continued threat of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over the mountains. Low will also provide minor synoptic
cooling with highs trending down to near normal by Tuesday.

PCH

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday through Saturday)...
An upper level low over southern California will continue to
bring the chance for Mountain showers and t-storms for the start
of the extended forecast. A few lingering showers will be possible
Tuesday night over the Mountains mainly over Plumas and Shasta
Counties. The moisture on Wednesday will be concentrated more in
the northern part of the CWA and that will keep the better chance
for Mountain storms north. A trough dropping south into the PacNW
will finally kick the upper level low east helping to bring a dry
end to the extended period. Temperatures will be right at average
to start out the forecast period and the trough pushing into the
PacNW will help to keep things seasonal. A ridge starts to build
in next weekend and that will push temperatures back above
average.

-CJM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR poss in ST
vcnty of Delta til arnd 17z. Isold aftn tstm poss ovr hyr trrn of
Siernev and mtns of Wrn Plumas Cnty btwn 21z-01z. SWly sfc wnd
gsts up to 30 kts poss thru Delta aft 00z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather




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