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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: STO
Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 122313
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
313 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2017


.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather into early next week with chilly nights in
the valleys.

&&

.Discussion...

Strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control of
the region. As a result, dry conditions will persist across
interior NorCal. Models show the ridge retrograding west through
mid- week, then upper ridging weakens as shortwave energy moves
across the Pacific Northwest on Friday. However, precipitation
associated with this system will remain north of our area. This
system will bring some cooling across the area but highs will
remain above normal.

Little overall temperature change expected through the end of the
week with dry and mild weather continuing under a strong
subsidence inversion. Temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. Daytime highs across the
Central Valley are expected to be in the 60s, except for low to
mid 70s over the northern Sacramento Valley where record high
temperatures could be possible.

Chilly overnight temperatures will continue in the Central Valley
beneath shallow nocturnal radiative inversions that develop each
night with patchy frost likely.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the
weekend with dry conditions. High pressure rebuilding inland
Saturday will lead to some breezy northerly wind that lingers
into Sunday. Above normal high temperatures continue over the
weekend. Models diverge early next week with EC maintaining more
ridging aloft into midweek, while GFS drops a short wave trough
into the area Wednesday. With low confidence this far out in the
forecast period, will maintain a dry forecast for now and
continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over Interior NorCal next 24 hours except local
MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG Southern Sacramento and Northern San
Joaquin Valleys between 08z-18z. Winds generally below 10 knots.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather




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