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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 09:03:01 UTC 2024.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 19 09:03:01 UTC 2024.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to 
NM during the period.  A mid-level ridge will extend northward from
northern CA into the Pacific Northwest.  Farther east, broad
cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest
southeastward through the East Coast.  Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening
across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners.  Surface high pressure
centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead
to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas.

..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

  SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of
the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night.  Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe
hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly
confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the
western Atlantic through this period.  Within one branch,
consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher
latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower
Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of
the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night.  This may be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of
northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a
reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the
northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward
across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and
central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday.

Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation
emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern
Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing,
but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale
impulses.  One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined
mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward
across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday
through Wednesday night.  A trailing perturbation may accelerate
through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border
area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach
Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday.  

There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning
these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the
way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface
troughing across the southern Great Plains.  And low-level moisture
return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in
the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the
northern Gulf Basin.  Better low-level moistening may remain
confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas
coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Texas Panhandle Vicinity...
To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach
the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon.  But it still
appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep,
well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500
J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) 
overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity
center.  Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may
only become modest, at best, this environment could still support
strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail
and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread
while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening.

...Southern Texas...
A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong
inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a
return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may
contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg.  Considerable
uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome
the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a
subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by
late Wednesday night, if not earlier.  If this occurs, strong
deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of
supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas
into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday.  One
or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal
to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a
deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the
Canadian Maritimes.  Models suggest that the leading edge of a
significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across
the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify
across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio
and Missouri Valleys.  

Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose
southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level
troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican
Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  Although substantive spread is evident in the various model
output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations,
it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken
while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity
early the period.  A trailing perturbation may become better-defined
while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the
upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night.  Models suggest
that this could support a developing surface low across the upper
Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the
western flank of a developing frontal zone extending
east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  However,
it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak.

...Southeast Texas...
Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas
coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas
during the day.  This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective
development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle
Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by
forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific.

There is some signal in the model output that this activity could
grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level
inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western
Gulf of Mexico.  If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous
thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast
Texas becomes more unclear.  Barring a substantive negative impact
on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the
primary upstream  short wave may contribute to the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon.  In the presence
of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large
hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible.  Although
low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will
probably also be possible.

Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow
upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the
developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern
Louisiana coastal areas. 

It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of
upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later
outlooks.  However, this may take a few cycles with much depending
on sub-synoptic developments.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

 






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