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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue May 30 12:23:01 UTC 2017.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 30 12:23:01 UTC 2017.Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS models are somewhat in agreement on Friday with a
shortwave ridge over the northern Plains, an upper-level trough over
the Great Lakes and a relatively weak mid-level flow pattern over
much of the central and southern U.S. The two models do show a
northwest-to-southeast gradient of low-level moisture from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes with moderate instability on
the warm side of the gradient. Convection that develops along this
corridor could have a severe threat Friday afternoon and evening
mainly due to the presence of a mid-level jet in the Great Lakes
which would enhance deep-layer shear. The mid-level jet is forecast
to move eastward across the Northeast on Saturday. Although the
upper-level pattern is different on Saturday for both the ECMWF and
GFS solutions, the models suggest the moisture gradient may still be
in place across parts of the southern Great Lakes. This would be the
area with the greatest potential for a severe threat Saturday
afternoon and evening. Spatial uncertainty is substantial for Friday
and Saturday.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are in a bit more agreement for Sunday
with an upper-level ridge in the Rockies and an upper-level trough
in the Upper Midwest. The two solutions suggest a front could be
located from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward in the
central Appalachian Mountains on Sunday. If a front ends up in that
general area, then an isolated severe threat would be possible with
thunderstorms that form along the front Sunday afternoon. On Monday,
the ECMWF and GFS solutions move the upper-level trough in the lower
Great Lakes and show a potential for convection in the Carolinas on
the southern part of the trough. This would be the area with the
greatest potential for a severe threat Monday afternoon. For
Tuesday, both solutions develop instability in the central high
Plains and show convective potential there. However, predictability
is low on Tuesday as is the case for the entire day 4 to 8 period.

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Pacific is forecast to begin impacting
portions of the West today, as the upper ridge previously in place
begins to weaken and shift eastward. The persistent cyclone in the
vicinity of western Ontario and the upper Great Lakes is forecast to
move little through the period, as a broad upper trough remains in
place over much of the central and eastern CONUS. 

...Portions of central/northern OR and southern WA east of the
Cascade Range...
As the upper ridge is broken down by the approaching trough,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and east of the Cascade Range across portions of Oregon and
Washington. Strong heating and deep mixing prior to storm initiation
will tend to limit the rainfall potential of some of this activity,
though PW values generally above 0.75" and rather substantial
surface-based instability will also support wetting rainfall in some
locations. Strong and erratic outflow winds will also be possible
with the strongest cells and with any clusters that develop. 

While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel receptivity, hot and
dry conditions and the lack of recent rainfall have cured fine
fuels, such that there may be some risk of ignitions with lightning
activity. Given these concerns, a isolated dry-thunderstorm area has
been introduced for portions of central/northern OR and southern WA
east of the Cascade Range.

..Dean.. 05/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A rather amplified pattern is expected to prevail over the CONUS on
Wednesday, as a deep upper trough persists over much of the East,
while an upper trough moves inland over the West, and an upper ridge
between the two troughs moves into the central/northern Rockies. 

...Portions of the Southwest and Great Basin...
As relatively strong southerly flow overspreads portions of the
Southwest and Great Basin ahead of the approaching trough, elevated
to locally critical meteorological conditions are expected to
develop during the afternoon, with winds approaching or exceeding 20
mph as RH drops below 15%. The primary limiting factor precluding a
more substantial threat is the lack of available dry fuels over much
of the Great Basin, based on recent fuel guidance. An elevated area
has been introduced over portions of northwest AR, southeast NV, and
southwest UT, where recent guidance suggests fuels have become
somewhat more receptive.

..Dean.. 05/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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