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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 167 SEVERE TSTM MS 270150Z - 270700Z
WW 0167 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
850 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 850 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Squall line will likely persist for several more hours
while moving eastward across central Mississippi.  Damaging winds
with be the main threat, though large hail and an isolated tornado
will be possible with the strongest embedded storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Greenwood MS to 50 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 164...WW 165...WW 166...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Thompson

  WW 166 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 262155Z - 270400Z
WW 0166 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East central and northeast Arkansas
  The Missouri Bootheel
  Northern Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM
  until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Squall line in Arkansas will likely persist through the
evening hours while moving eastward into western Tennessee and
Mississippi.  Damaging winds with embedded bowing segments will be
the main severe threat.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast
of Dyersburg TN to 55 miles west southwest of Oxford MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 163...WW 164...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26040.

...Thompson

  WW 0167 Status Updates
WW 0167 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0167 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
  WW 0166 Status Updates
WW 0166 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 166

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW UOX
TO 40 NNE DYR.

..KERR..04/27/17

ATTN...WFO...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MSC009-013-071-093-107-115-135-137-139-145-161-270340-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CALHOUN             LAFAYETTE           
MARSHALL             PANOLA              PONTOTOC            
TALLAHATCHIE         TATE                TIPPAH              
UNION                YALOBUSHA           


TNC017-023-033-047-053-069-075-077-079-097-109-113-183-270340-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL              CHESTER             CROCKETT            
FAYETTE              GIBSON              HARDEMAN            
HAYWOOD              HENDERSON           HENRY               
LAUDERDALE           MCNAIRY             MADISON             
WEAKLEY              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
  WW 0165 Status Updates
WW 0165 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 165

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE FWA
TO 30 N FWA TO 35 SSW JXN.

..LEITMAN..04/27/17

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

INC003-033-151-270240-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                DE KALB             STEUBEN             


OHC039-051-069-125-137-161-171-270240-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEFIANCE             FULTON              HENRY               
PAULDING             PUTNAM              VAN WERT            
WILLIAMS             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0164 Status Updates
WW 0164 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 164

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HEZ
TO 25 S UOX.

..KERR..04/27/17

ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 164 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC025-029-035-041-065-107-123-270340-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           EAST CARROLL        
FRANKLIN             MADISON             TENSAS              
WEST CARROLL         


MSC011-015-043-051-053-055-083-125-133-149-151-163-270340-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLIVAR              CARROLL             GRENADA             
HOLMES               HUMPHREYS           ISSAQUENA           
LEFLORE              SHARKEY             SUNFLOWER           
WARREN               WASHINGTON          YAZOO               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
  WW 0163 Status Updates
WW 0163 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 163

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ARG TO
25 SE MDH.

WW 163 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270000Z.

..LEITMAN..04/26/17

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC003-153-181-270000-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            PULASKI             UNION               


MOC201-270000-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

SCOTT                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 27 02:57:04 UTC 2017.Public Severe Weather Outlook
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  Northwest Mississippi
  Northeast Texas

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size
  Scattered damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi
  Valley. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most
  probable from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and
  northern Louisiana this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms
  may extend as far north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and
  evening, and into the central Gulf States during the overnight
  hours.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

  SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN IN AND NORTHWEST OH...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will remain possible from portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast region northward to the southern Great
Lakes region into tonight. Widely scattered damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes may accompany storms moving across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and vicinity into the
overnight hours, while a cluster of storms moving across portions of
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio may produce widely scattered
damaging winds into the evening hours.

...Portions of the north-central Gulf Coast region northward to the
southern Great Lakes region...
A corridor of convective bands extends from the lower OH Valley to
the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity. The northern portion of this
activity is pinching off the northernmost extent of more appreciable
moisture return, which 00Z observed soundings suggest resides closer
to the coast. While poleward return of more substantially modified
maritime air will occur ahead of the convection, the richer moisture
and related substantive buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg)
should remain generally near and south of western/middle TN. This is
where sufficient deep shear (45-65 kt of effective bulk shear) will
also exist in favor of continued quasi-linear convective modes
capable of widely scattered damaging winds. This activity will
spread into western AL through the overnight hours, and sufficient
low-level shear may exist for occasional line-embedded and
line-preceding supercell structures to support a couple of
tornadoes. Some isolated severe risk could extend even farther east
later in the night.

Farther north, a sustained cluster of storms continues advancing
northeastward across northern IN, and may eventually affect parts of
northwest OH before weakening in southern Lower MI this evening.
Moderately steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.3 C/km, based on the
Detroit 00Z sounding, will support sufficient buoyancy amid modest
moisture return for some severe risk persisting in the short-term.

Relatively weaker low-level lapse rates and limited moisture return
between the Slight Risk areas suggest that the severe risk should
remain more isolated across parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley
region and vicinity. However, locally damaging wind gusts may
accompany the most pronounced bowing convective line segments.

..Cohen.. 04/27/2017

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 262210Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO INDIANA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

AMENDED FOR NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Lower Mississippi
Valley.  Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most probable
from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana
this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may extend
as far north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, and
into the central Gulf States during the overnight hours.

...2210Z Outlook Amendment...

The Slight/Marginal areas have been extended northward across
portions of the southern Great Lakes region.  Please reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165 for additional details.

...20Z Update...

...Lower MS Valley...
Outflow boundary continues to surge eastward across northern and
central AR ahead of the approaching cold front. Anafrontal character
to the ongoing convection is expected to continue with the cold
front eventually catching up to the outflow later this
afternoon/evening. Farther south, a more composite outflow/cold
front already exists with some severe storms currently ongoing.

Linear nature of this convection is expected to persist throughout
the evening with little indication in either recent observations
(i.e. backed mid-level flow on the 18Z SHV sounding) or recent
guidance that robust discrete development will occur.  As a result,
reduced the tornado probabilities across the area to 10%. Given the
strength of the shear, some QLCS tornadoes are still possible.

Strongest storms are expected to remain along the southern end of
the line where the best low-level moisture exists and the mean flow
is more orthogonal to the advancing cold front. 

...OH Valley...
Based on current convective trends, expanded the Slight a bit more
northeastward into more east-central IL and southwest IN.

..Cohen.. 04/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

...Lower MS Valley...
Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A squall line
currently extends from south-central MO into northeast TX.  Several
bowing structures along this line will pose a risk of damaging winds
gusts, large hail, and perhaps a QLCS tornado or two this afternoon.
The activity will likely spread into southeast MO and western KY/TN
by early evening, with a continued severe threat.

Farther south, most model solutions suggest that the capping
inversion will slowly weaken this afternoon.  This should help to
allow a few discrete storms to form in the warm sector ahead of the
more organized convective line.  Local VAD and forecast hodographs
in this region continue to support a risk of supercells capable of
tornadoes (some strong) if discrete initiation materializes. 
Therefore will maintain the MDT risk and 15% tornado forecast. 
These storms are expected to track northeastward through the evening
into western/central MS where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
will remain possible.

Overnight, it is uncertain how far east the organized severe threat
will persist.  Nevertheless, will make no changes to the eastern
extent of the SLGT risk at this time.

 




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