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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 58 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA VA CW 011815Z - 020000Z
WW 0058 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 58
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Eastern Maryland
  Central and Southern New Jersey
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Eastern Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM
  until 700 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will track across the
watch this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging winds and some hail.
 Conditions may also become favorable for an isolated tornado or two
by mid-late afternoon ahead of the line of storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest
of Richmond VA to 20 miles north of Trenton NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Hart

  WW 57 TORNADO AL GA MS NC TN 011750Z - 020000Z
WW 0057 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 57
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Alabama
  Northern Georgia
  Central and Northeast Mississippi
  Extreme Western North Carolina
  Southeast Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until
  600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will slowly intensify this afternoon along a
boundary extending from northern MS into southeast TN, and spread
across the watch area.  Large hail and isolated tornadoes are the
main threats with these storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Greenwood MS to
65 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

  WW 56 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NC PA VA WV CW 011535Z - 012200Z
WW 0056 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Western and Central Maryland
  Northwest North Carolina
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Western and Northern Virginia
  Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM
  until 500 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms over WV and eastern KY will
track eastward across the watch area this morning and early
afternoon.  Damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms
appears to be the main threat, although an isolated tornado or two
is possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of
Hagerstown MD to 65 miles south of Dublin VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27040.

...Hart

  WW 0058 Status Updates
WW 0058 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 58

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW AVC
TO 20 WNW NHK TO 15 NE BWI TO 35 W ABE.

..GLEASON..03/01/17

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 58 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DEC001-003-005-012040-

DE 
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX              


MDC011-015-019-029-035-039-041-045-047-012040-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAROLINE             CECIL               DORCHESTER          
KENT                 QUEEN ANNE'S        SOMERSET            
TALBOT               WICOMICO            WORCESTER           


NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-012040-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN              
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER          
  WW 0057 Status Updates
WW 0057 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 57

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLH
TO 35 N HSV.

..COHEN..03/01/17

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...JAN...MEG...MRX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC009-015-019-033-043-049-055-057-059-063-071-073-075-079-083-
089-093-095-103-107-115-119-125-127-133-012040-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT               CALHOUN             CHEROKEE            
COLBERT              CULLMAN             DEKALB              
ETOWAH               FAYETTE             FRANKLIN            
GREENE               JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
LAMAR                LAWRENCE            LIMESTONE           
MADISON              MARION              MARSHALL            
MORGAN               PICKENS             ST. CLAIR           
SUMTER               TUSCALOOSA          WALKER              
WINSTON              


GAC015-047-055-057-083-085-111-115-123-129-187-213-227-233-281-
291-295-311-313-012040-

GA 
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARTOW               CATOOSA             CHATTOOGA           
CHEROKEE             DADE                DAWSON              
  WW 0056 Status Updates
WW 0056 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 56

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE TRI
TO 35 NNW AVC TO 20 WNW NHK TO 15 NE BWI TO 30 NE CXY.

..GLEASON..03/01/17

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MDC003-005-009-025-037-012040-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT             
HARFORD              ST. MARYS           


NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-012040-

NC 
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHANY            ASHE                CASWELL             
ROCKINGHAM           STOKES              SURRY               
WATAUGA              WILKES              YADKIN              


PAC071-075-012040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LANCASTER            LEBANON             
  WW 0055 Status Updates
WW 0055 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 55

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CSV TO
5 NNW BLF.

..GLEASON..03/01/17

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TNC001-007-009-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-093-
105-107-121-123-129-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179-
011740-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             BLEDSOE             BLOUNT              
CAMPBELL             CARTER              CLAIBORNE           
COCKE                GRAINGER            GREENE              
HAMBLEN              HANCOCK             HAWKINS             
JEFFERSON            JOHNSON             KNOX                
LOUDON               MCMINN              MEIGS               
MONROE               MORGAN              RHEA                
ROANE                SCOTT               SEQUATCHIE          
SEVIER               SULLIVAN            UNICOI              
UNION                WASHINGTON          


VAC051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-011740-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DICKENSON            LEE                 RUSSELL             
  WW 0054 Status Updates
WW 0054 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 54

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BKW TO
20 NW EKN TO 20 NE EKN.

..GLEASON..03/01/17

ATTN...WFO...RLX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

WVC075-083-101-011740-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

POCAHONTAS           RANDOLPH            WEBSTER             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58... FOR NJ...SOUTHEASTERN PA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VA
MD 0246 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...NJ...southeastern PA...the Delmarva Peninsula...and
southeastern VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58...

Valid 011950Z - 012045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58
continues.

SUMMARY...A widespread damaging wind threat will continue across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58 with a line of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A line of shallow convection with occasional embedded
lightning strikes has produced numerous measured severe wind gusts
in addition to trees down/damage reports across VA, MD, and DC over
the past several hours. This line is moving quickly eastward around
60 mph, and it will continue to pose a widespread damaging wind risk
across the Delmarva Peninsula and NJ until it moves offshore. Across
southeastern VA, the line has not regenerated, possibly due to
slightly stronger capping in the 850-700 mb layer compared to
locations farther north. Regardless, a conditional damaging wind
threat exists across southeastern VA. Across central/northern NJ
into far southern NY, the atmosphere remains only weakly unstable,
and the prospect for an appreciable wind threat north of the current
Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains unclear.

..Gleason.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37157797 38187655 38977620 40607568 40957502 40737403
            40297381 39547413 38597462 37747501 37477522 37247596
            36977702 37157797 

  MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...SOUTHERN LA
MD 0245 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern MS...southwest AL...southern
LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011932Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential will spread across parts of the
lower MS Valley region and vicinity through the late afternoon/early
evening hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues southwestward along
a weakly convergent segment of a front -- from parts of central MS
to southwest LA. Despite weak frontal ascent, strong heating of a
moist boundary layer characterized by middle 60s dewpoints is
supporting moderate buoyancy. Given effective shear around 40-50 kt
with deep flow oriented obliquely to the frontal segment,
semi-discrete updrafts and thunderstorm clusters are forecast to
spread eastward through early evening. The aforementioned
shear/buoyancy may support a few severe thunderstorms. However, weak
deep ascent/frontal convergence should tend to limit the overall
severe risk.

..Cohen/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30489299 32079056 32378936 32248855 31778832 30799034
            30199227 30489299 

  MD 0244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC...WESTERN SC...FAR NORTHEAST GA
MD 0244 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western NC...western SC...far northeast
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 011907Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for severe storms will spread across portions of
the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region, affecting
the area around and after 20Z. Watch issuance will be likely.

DISCUSSION...A squall line with embedded rotating updrafts from
eastern TN to north MS will continue spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist boundary layer is
supporting MLCAPE around 250-750 J/kg ahead of this activity. With
strong deep shear, organized convective structures including
occasional bowing segments will spread across the region. This
activity will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. A brief
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with line-embedded meso-vortices.
Watch issuance will be likely within the next hour or so.

..Cohen/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35208355 35888261 36038031 35538007 35028108 34608206
            34498284 34738346 35208355 

  Public Severe Weather Outlook
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern
Tennessee, southern Kentucky, and far western Virginia area this
morning...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southern Kentucky
  Northern Tennessee
  Far western Virginia

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds
  A couple of tornadoes
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread wind damage is forecast across parts of Kentucky and
  Tennessee this morning. Severe thunderstorms will continue to
  spread across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions into the
  Middle Atlantic states, possibly into southern New England by
  mid afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat,
  though a few tornadoes and hail will be possible, especially
  west of the Appalachians.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

  SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...AND SOUTHERN TN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected from portions
of the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic region and parts of southern
New England. Damaging winds will be likely, and the risk for
tornadoes will exist particularly from parts of northeast
Mississippi to portions of north Georgia and vicinity.

...Portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic region and southern
New England...

An extensive belt of strong mid/high-level flow across the Southern
and Eastern States will maintain strong deep shear over a moist and
diurnally destabilizing warm sector across the area. A squall line
from Middle TN toward the central Appalachians will likely spread
across the adjacent Piedmont during the next several hours.
Re-intensification of this activity is expected, owing to the
presence of adequate moisture return (upper 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints) amidst surface heating and relatively steep midlevel
lapse rates. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be likely as this
activity spreads toward the coastal plain through the evening. A
couple of tornadoes will be possible. Severe-wind probabilities have
been increased eastward across the Piedmont area.

More separated updrafts/discrete convection are evolving across
parts of the lower MS Valley, at the southern end of a zone of
stronger deep ascent. As this activity spreads eastward toward parts
of the southern Appalachians and vicinity, it will intercept a
relatively more moist boundary layer supporting stronger instability
further aided by steep midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km in the
700-500-mb layer per the 12Z Jackson sounding). With 250-350 m2/s2
of effective SRH associated with modestly curved though long
hodographs, tornado probabilities have been increased in this area.

With northward extent across the East (i.e., toward southern New
England and vicinity), weaker instability will exist owing to more
widespread cloud coverage amidst an antecedent cooler/drier boundary
layer. However, strong vertical shear profiles will support a
conditional severe risk.

Modest destabilization may take place around the upper Ohio Valley
and eastern Great Lakes area amidst recycled moisture ahead of the
primary cold front, perhaps supporting a band of strongly forced
convection spreading eastward from the late afternoon through the
evening. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany this activity.

..Cohen.. 03/01/2017

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not forecast over the Lower 48 states on Thursday.

...FL...
A vigorous shortwave trough located over the Northeast will quickly
move to Nova Scotia and the western Atlantic on Thursday.  A cold
front attendant to this trough will move south across the FL
Peninsula this forecast period.  Warm midlevel temperatures across
north FL should inhibit the development of thunderstorms. 
Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out farther south
as the cold front reaches south FL and in vicinity of a sea breeze
front.  However, weak forcing aloft and weak lapse rates should
limit the probability for thunderstorms. 

...IL/IN...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will track from the upper Midwest and
amplify across the OH Valley this forecast period, approaching the
central Appalachians by 12Z Friday.  A concurrent surface low/cold
front will move quickly to the east-southeast across IA and into IL
by Thursday afternoon, and advance through the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night, with the low reaching southern PA/northern VA region
late in the period.  Cooler surface temperatures and a lack of
higher surface dew points would suggest a limited potential for
convective development.  However, forecast soundings suggest
sufficient destabilization should occur along the track of the
surface low/cold front from southeast IA through central IL into
west/southwest IN.  Steepening lower tropospheric lapse rates
(surface-3 km exceeding 8 C/km in the afternoon) while relatively
rapid cooling occurs in the 600-750-mb layer may prove favorable for
weak buoyancy to reach temperatures cold enough for charge
separation within shallow convection.  This convection should be
located along the fast-moving cold front, enhancing the transfer of
higher momentum air to the surface.  The potential for lightning
production is expected to remain less than 10%, precluding the
inclusion of a general thunderstorm area, though locally enhanced
convective gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Peters.. 03/01/2017

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains...
Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remains valid
with recent observations and the latest guidance still suggesting
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the central and
southern Plains and critical fire weather conditions from central KS
southward across western OK. 

Despite a relatively cool start to the day, temperatures across
central KS and western OK are still expected to reach the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Given the dry airmass in place, these temperatures amidst
boundary-layer mixing will support afternoon RH values in the low to
mid teens. Slightly better low-level moisture will result in higher
afternoon RH values (around 20-25 percent) across the remainder of
the southern Plains. Wind speeds will range from 15 to 25 mph across
the entire region and the resulting combination of these
meteorological conditions with dry fuels will support a critical
fire weather threat from central KS southward through western OK and
an elevated fire weather threat across the remainder of KS and OK,
and portions of northwest TX, the TX Hill country, Edwards Plateau,
and Rio Grande Valley.

..Mosier.. 03/01/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017/

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper trough will gradually shift from the Plains states
to the eastern US today, as a strong southwesterly jet advances from
the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. A corridor
of enhanced northwesterly flow will exist along the western
periphery of the trough, generally from the northern Rockies to the
mid Mississippi Valley. The surface response will feature low
pressure advancing northeast near the St. Lawrence Valley, with high
pressure building across much of the Plains.

...Portions of the central/southern Plains...
Despite the passage of a cold front (and related cold-air
advection), temperatures will still reach the 50s and 60s across
Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas, and into the 70s and 80s across
far south Texas. The air mass across most of this region will be
characterized by precipitable-water values around 0.2-0.3 inches. In
turn, diurnal mixing will lead to minimum RH values around 12-25
percent. 

Modestly enhanced low/mid-level northwesterly flow will be advancing
south/east across the region during the day. Additionally, the
aforementioned high building into the Plains will support a tighter
pressure gradient. The highest surface winds (sustained around 20
mph) should exist in a corridor from western Oklahoma northward to
central Kansas. In tandem with the dry conditions, these winds will
create a critical fire-weather threat. Surrounding this area, winds
will be lighter (generally around 15-20 mph), but will still be
sufficient to support elevated concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Portions of the central Plains...
Latest guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather
conditions across portions of northeast/east-central KS and adjacent
far southeast NE. Similar meteorological conditions are expected
farther south/southeast into southeast KS and west-central/southwest
MO but recent rainfall and resulting moist fuels will likely temper
the threat across the region. For more details, refer to the
previous forecast discussion below.

..Mosier.. 03/01/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017/

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid/upper-level flow will remain established across
the eastern US on Thursday, as one strong impulse lifts northeast
from New England into the Canadian Maritimes and another transits
southeast from the upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. At the
surface, a rapidly deepening cyclone will lift into New Brunswick.
To the west, expansive high pressure will continue to build across
much of the central and eastern US.

...Portions of the central Plains...
With a shortwave trough dropping southeast across the Missouri
Valley Thursday, a small corridor of enhanced northwesterly flow
will advance across the region. Fairly deep mixing will encourage
breezy conditions, with sustained northwesterly winds around 15-20
mph over parts of northern/eastern Kansas. Additionally, despite
weak cold-air advection, minimum RH values should be around 15-25
percent. These meteorological conditions will combine with dry fuels
to produce an elevated fire-weather threat. Across far southeast
Kansas and western Missouri, while elevated meteorological
conditions may develop, recent wetting rainfall may preclude a
greater fire-weather threat. However, if future guidance suggests
receptive fuels, the elevated area may be expanded eastward.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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