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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 23 18:05:01 UTC 2017.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 23 18:05:01 UTC 2017.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the central
and southern Florida Peninsula today.

...FL...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the FL peninsula today,
as an upper trough moves across the region.  The strongest upper
forcing and vertical shear is occurring in vicinity of the surface
baroclinic zone from north of TPA to north of MLB.  Isolated cells
may occasionally intensify to strong/severe levels in this corridor
today with gusty winds, small hail, and perhaps a tornado.  Vertical
shear profiles will slowly weaken through the day as cyclogenesis
occurs off the east coast, veering and weakening low level winds. 
This combined with substantial cloud cover and only weak CAPE lead
to maintenance of the MRGL risk category.

Farther south, parameters are less favorable for organized severe
storms.  However, slightly higher instability values and more
favorable diurnal timing of convection may lead to a few strong
cells capable of gusty winds. Therefore no changes to the outlook
have been made to this area.

..Hart/Leitman.. 11/23/2017

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous United
States on Friday or Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the north-central U.S. on
Friday as another upper-level trough moves across eastern sections
of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm.
However, no severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 11/23/2017

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Weather conditions are not expected to pose a significant threat for
the ignition and/or spread of wildfires today. See the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 11/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

...Synopsis...
A stout upper ridge will remain anchored across the Southwestern
U.S. during the Thanksgiving holiday.  Meanwhile, a shortwave will
quickly migrate eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies.  A belt of very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level flow
will traverse much of the Intermountain West on the periphery of
this trough throughout the forecast period.

At the surface, a ridge centered over western Colorado will weaken
substantially throughout the day, while another ridge remains nearly
stationary across the Eastern U.S.  A weak trough/cold front will
migrate southward across the Plains throughout the evening as well.

The weakening surface ridge across the West will result in
slackening low-level flow that will lessen the fire weather threat
across dry coastal ranges of southern California.  With relatively
high RH in other dry areas of the country, no fire weather
highlights will be needed for this outlook.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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