U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 261814 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the western trough on Saturday, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed airmass is expected to be in place by Saturday afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into far southeastern Colorado and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. Conditions will be monitored for higher end potential.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 261840 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024
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