ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180704

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across
   the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry
   and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result
   of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow
   to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure
   gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with
   single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire
   weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only
   marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation
   for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade
   to Critical may be needed in later outlooks.

   ..Bentley.. 05/18/2024

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172202

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is
   expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next
   week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is
   expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser
   fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains,
   due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid
   in fire spread potential.

   By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the
   western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce
   pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a
   result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and
   NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the
   single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east
   as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the
   development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher
   probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire
   weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest
   to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula
   into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind
   speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the
   Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and
   CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC
   percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday.
   However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not
   quite high enough to introduce it yet. 

   Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through
   D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM.
   This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with
   less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough
   continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will
   dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will
   be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to
   west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on
   D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move
   toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly
   return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely
   enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions
   of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday,
   although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM.

   ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024