ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN

089 
AXNT20 KNHC 181001
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15.5W and continues southwestward to 
05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to the coast of Brazil near  
03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 01N to 06N east of 30W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 35W and
59W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains across the northern Gulf from southeast
Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas, Mexico. Clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms are present N of 28.5N between southwest Louisiana 
and the western Florida Panhandle. Over the remainder of the 
basin, much drier and more stable atmospheric conditions prevail.
Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering most
of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, including in the 
coastal plains of Mexico, and restricting visibility. Fresh to 
strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north
of Yucatan Peninsula, especially south of 26N, and between 86W 
and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
in the rest of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward 
across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken
gradually through Mon. Upper-level disturbances moving from W to 
E across the Gulf coast states will maintain active weather over 
the northern Gulf through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, 
pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay 
of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week 
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and 
smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of 
the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue and Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward to along about 60W and then westward along 24N-25N
to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh to strong SE winds west of 83W, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the areas described are 
6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker wind and slight to moderate 
sea are prevalent. Very dry and stable atmospheric conditions
prevail across the entire basin, with no significant convection
noted. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are 
covering the NW Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the basin will
reorganize through Mon, and sustain strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale-force into Sat morning 
and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next
week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward
Wed and Wed night leading to increasing trade winds over most of 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across areas of the 
northwestern Caribbean, and is significantly reducing visibility 
across the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N70W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to near Melbourne, Florida. A few showers
are seen near the frontal boundary north of the NW Bahamas, while
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front east
of 65W. The rest of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under 
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge in the central 
Atlantic. The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned
subtropical ridge, centered on a 1022 mb high near 33N47W. South 
of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of
5-7 ft are found south of 17N between 30W and the Lesser 
Antilles. Saharan air dominates these waters between 35W and
Africa. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate 
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon, with 
active weather expected to continue ahead of the front through 
Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high 
pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will 
sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida 
early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A 
residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas
Wed and Wed night. 

$$
Stripling

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce an 
area of showers and thunderstorms. Dry air nearby and marginal 
environmental conditions are likely to limit significant 
development. This system should remain nearly stationary during the 
next day or so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is forecast 
to interact or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast 
of southern Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be 
slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 15N100W to a 1009 mb 
low pressure situated near 11N106W to 07N120W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N E of 90W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 91W and 100W,
from 07N to 13N between 105W and 111W, and from 02N to 07N W of
128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California  
supporting moderate to fresh N-NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft.
Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, winds are light to
gentle with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell, excep slight seas
to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Reduced visibility is likely
over the S and SW offshore zones of Mexico due to agricultural 
fires.

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula along with a trough over NW Mexico 
will conintue to support moderate to fresh N-NW winds over the 
Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Wed, increasing to
locally strong speeds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia
Sun through Mon. Large NW swell is forecast to impact the Baja 
California offshore waters Mon through Wed night with seas to 9
ft. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist 
several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern 
Mexico along a trough of low pressure. Development of this 
system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly 
westward during the next few days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds are ongoing over the Central
America offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4-6 ft
range in SW swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SE and
seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to support and
amplify the convection over the Central America offshore waters
through early next week. Modereate NE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo Sun and Mon. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds will
develop across portions of the Colombia and Ecuador offshore
waters Sun night into Mon night. Southwest swell with 8-9 ft seas
will start to propagate across the waters SW of the Galapagos
Islands Sun, and reach the the Ecuador offshore waters through Mon
evening before subsiding. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters N of 17N and W of 120W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 14N west of
125W. Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. A 1009
mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N106W. Moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are noted on the SE semicircle of the 
low center to about 07N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker 
with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the basin due to cross equatorial 
SW swell S of 20N.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast waters N of 10N and W of 120W through the middle o f
next week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas along the southern periphery of its associated 
ridge. The high pressure will strengthen Sun into Mon bringing 
some increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja 
California, and in the trade wind zone. Large SW swell should 
reach near the equator west of 100W later today and continue 
through Mon. 

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce
a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has 
become more diffuse than yesterday, and marginal environmental 
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant 
development. This system should remain nearly stationary during 
the next day or so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is 
forecast to interact or merge with another system to its east.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms (the second system) persist
several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico
along a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if 
any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during 
the next few days.

$$
Ramos

No Storms to Report