U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today
with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten
the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to
windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern
New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60
knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this
region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative
humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist
over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to
dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat
will exist across eastern New Mexico.
..Bentley.. 03/29/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290553
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES....
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a
trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow
will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High
Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative
humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday
will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all
fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New
Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles.
..Bentley.. 03/29/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
weekend and early next week.
...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
concerns, especially D5/Sun.
Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
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