U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...17z Update...
No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated
area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big
Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly
overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions
are possible given recent drying of fuels.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains
today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level
support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High
Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western
Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20
percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire
spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated
highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281847
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...19z Update...
Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has
increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with
RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some
uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed
green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some
critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and
potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and
low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather
potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern
CO. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High
Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow
(Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of
the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH
and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak
heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels
will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread
"high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico
into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater
rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed
in future outlooks.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
weekend and early next week.
...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
concerns, especially D5/Sun.
Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
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