U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 241807 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 241945 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024
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