U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251620
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
Elevated to critical conditions have started to develop across
southeast New Mexico. Expect these conditions to expand/worsen
through the day as mid-level flow strengthens and lee cyclogenesis
continues. Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly farther north
based on current and expected position of the front and dryline.
Otherwise, no changes were necessary. See previous discussion below.
..Bentley.. 04/25/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an
accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads
southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid
deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale
pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical
fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with
high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM.
...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains...
Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and
diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer,
characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and
single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure
gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into
the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These
conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical
fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels.
The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is
expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological
conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry
fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250614
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance
northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On
the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline
environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains.
This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions
across the region during the afternoon.
...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains...
Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a
tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined
with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield
20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry
antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH.
As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across
southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly
dry fuels over the area.
..Weinman.. 04/25/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 241945
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday
into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a
trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains
each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70
percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the
southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap
through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By
Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle
Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface
winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter,
upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry
conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another
mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of
next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region,
though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the
addition of Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024
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