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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280635

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains
   today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level
   support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High
   Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western
   Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20
   percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire
   spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated
   highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280654

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High
   Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow
   (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of
   the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH
   and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak
   heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels
   will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread
   "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico
   into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater
   rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed
   in future outlooks.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the
   western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will
   quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves
   onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the
   southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds.
   Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to
   critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early
   next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and
   wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the
   end of the extended forecast period.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this
   week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As
   flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to
   move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting
   D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should
   begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the
   afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with
   higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With
   temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should
   allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather
   conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical
   concerns are also possible but more uncertain.

   Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of
   shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify
   ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should
   still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming
   temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH
   minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible.

   More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into
   D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading
   80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee
   low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and
   higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range,
   widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across
   parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into
   D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward.
   However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower
   owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in
   the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less
   likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below
   normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to
   develop.

   ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024
      




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